maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2025 9:46 am
According to most forecasts, if current positive trends continue, GDP growth in 2018 will be around +3-4% with a gradual increase in growth over the next 5 years by 1-2%. This forecast is based on the continuation of positive trends in the oil market and a gradual revival in our export markets,
According to most experts, Kazakhstan's economy passed the "bottom" of the crisis in 2015-2016 and is now recovering. However, the recovery is limited and subject to many external and internal risks.
The growth is due to a gradual increase in oil prices, growth in domestic investment under various government programs and an improvement in the geopolitical situation.
"2017 was generally successful in terms of macroeconomic malaysia cell phone number list dynamics. The rise in oil prices led to a significant increase in exports, as well as growth in industrial production and GDP. The increase in physical volumes of oil production was also very favorable, including due to the start of Kashagan operation.
The expected oil production volume of 85.5 million tons by the end of the year is almost 10% higher than the 2016 level, and this growth, together with the growth of oil prices, made the main contribution to the increase in GDP, which will exceed 4%. At the same time, social indicators remain depressed - real incomes of the population continued to decline throughout the year, in October this decline reached 2.6%. Therefore, the results of the year are of a dual nature: along with the macroeconomic positive, there was a negative in the indicators of the standard of living of the population.
In 2018, I expect GDP growth at the level of 2-2.5%. It will be lower than this year, because the growth of oil prices will be less intense. If this year prices rose by about 25%, then in the future this growth, in my opinion, will be less than 10% - accordingly, the growth indicators of the Kazakh oil industry will be lower, which will be reflected in the less intense dynamics of GDP"
Vyacheslav DODONOV , Chief Researcher, KISI under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
materials from the site kursiv.kz
For many markets, companies and brands, such a forecast for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan means that the economy will gradually "thaw" after the fall of 2014-2016. Demand will gradually recover, but not at the same pace and not to the same volumes. We need to get used to a new system of coordinates for the development of the economy.
According to most experts, Kazakhstan's economy passed the "bottom" of the crisis in 2015-2016 and is now recovering. However, the recovery is limited and subject to many external and internal risks.
The growth is due to a gradual increase in oil prices, growth in domestic investment under various government programs and an improvement in the geopolitical situation.
"2017 was generally successful in terms of macroeconomic malaysia cell phone number list dynamics. The rise in oil prices led to a significant increase in exports, as well as growth in industrial production and GDP. The increase in physical volumes of oil production was also very favorable, including due to the start of Kashagan operation.
The expected oil production volume of 85.5 million tons by the end of the year is almost 10% higher than the 2016 level, and this growth, together with the growth of oil prices, made the main contribution to the increase in GDP, which will exceed 4%. At the same time, social indicators remain depressed - real incomes of the population continued to decline throughout the year, in October this decline reached 2.6%. Therefore, the results of the year are of a dual nature: along with the macroeconomic positive, there was a negative in the indicators of the standard of living of the population.
In 2018, I expect GDP growth at the level of 2-2.5%. It will be lower than this year, because the growth of oil prices will be less intense. If this year prices rose by about 25%, then in the future this growth, in my opinion, will be less than 10% - accordingly, the growth indicators of the Kazakh oil industry will be lower, which will be reflected in the less intense dynamics of GDP"
Vyacheslav DODONOV , Chief Researcher, KISI under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
materials from the site kursiv.kz
For many markets, companies and brands, such a forecast for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan means that the economy will gradually "thaw" after the fall of 2014-2016. Demand will gradually recover, but not at the same pace and not to the same volumes. We need to get used to a new system of coordinates for the development of the economy.